July 15, 2010

Confusion Persists, as TrafficCourt Astutely Points Out

If you haven't read TrafficCourt, run by David Bodamer, you should put it on your to-read blog list. It's a great CRE blog that is part of Retail Traffic, the monthly news magazine. We here at Commercial Real Estate Insider haven't posted anything in about two weeks because, well, we just don't see much worth posting. News continues to be regurgitated but in different forms and with different messages - the recovery is on, the recovery is off; REITs are great, REITs are seeing their debt terms tightened; buyers are back, buyers are skeptical and underwrite conservatively. It is just maddening.

To this point, TrafficCourt has a great post on exactly this, addressing the mainstream media's inability to understand the market dynamics and its oversimplification of the situation for their readers. The bottom line, with which we agree, is that the market is fragmented between the good, bad, and really bad, and both opportunities and pitfalls exist in pockets scattered throughout the US - there is no singular "market." It's a bunch of little markets. From our perspective in Northeast Ohio, David is right-on, but probably understates the situation, with this:

We’re going to see continued pain in some places alongside recovery in others. It does very much appear, though, that a bottom in values has formed. But I don’t think anyone can say for certain what the contours or speed of recovery in values is going to look like. And it’s going to play out differently in different markets and in different property sectors.
We encourage you to read the whole post. If anything, someone who can successfully use the word "zeitgeist" in their post (which yes, we had to look up too) is worth reading to us.


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